Commerzbank forecasts August Ifo Business Climate Index at 86.0, down from 86.6, citing geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to decline to 86.0 in August from 86.6 in July, as renewed Iran war concerns and higher energy prices weigh on sentiment. Economists note that expectations have deteriorated despite resilient current activity data, reflecting growing skepticism among businesses.
The July survey had benefited from an interim U.S.-Iran agreement and a sharp drop in energy prices, but those gains have since reversed. Supply chain disruptions from low river levels could add further pressure, though hard data remain relatively stable for now.
Market focus will shift to whether these pressures begin to impact assessments of the current business situation, which have held up better than expectations.