Retailers delay restocking amid inflation and weak demand, with imports forecast to stay below 2025 volumes through late 2026.
US retailers are holding back on inventory restocking despite a short-term rise in import cargo volumes. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates project imports will remain below 2025 levels for much of the second half of 2026, citing cautious spending and geopolitical risks.
June imports are expected to rise year-over-year, but the gain follows a sharp decline in 2025 after tariffs disrupted supply chains. Analysts note softer consumer demand and persistent inflation are discouraging aggressive stockpiling ahead of the peak shipping season.
Retailers remain wary of overstocking, with forward demand weakening. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty further dampen restocking plans, according to industry forecasts.