Market participants now expect Turkey’s year-end CPI at 29.5%, exceeding the CBRT’s 28% projection amid persistent price pressures.
Turkey’s inflation outlook has deteriorated as market participants raised year-end Consumer Price Index expectations to 29.5% year-over-year, surpassing the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) 28% forecast. Seasonally-adjusted price momentum remains above 2% month-over-month, signaling sustained inflationary pressures and dimming prospects for near-term disinflation.
The CBRT has historically revised its inflation forecasts upward as private expectations outpace official projections, a pattern analysts say undermines credibility. Market surveys show participants consistently adjust estimates ahead of the central bank, which typically follows with delayed revisions during scheduled reports.
The Turkish Lira (TRY) remains under pressure, recently breaching 48.10 against the US Dollar (USD). Persistent inflation concerns and the CBRT’s perceived lag in anchoring expectations continue to weigh on the currency.