Mexico’s central bank revised growth higher but delayed inflation convergence amid trade uncertainty and economic weakness.
The Bank of Mexico increased its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.1%, citing revised economic projections. However, it pushed back its inflation target return to 3% from Q2 2027 to Q4 2027, reflecting persistent price pressures.
Core inflation for Q4 2026 was adjusted upward to 3.5% from 3.4%, while headline inflation remains at 3.5%. The bank noted economic weakness linked to uncertainty over the USMCA trade review and broader geopolitical risks.
Growth for 2027 was slightly lowered to 2.0% from 2.1%, with inflation expected to stabilize at 3.0% by Q4 2027.