Prediction markets assign high probability to bitcoin dropping to new lows next year after recent declines.
Bitcoin extended losses Tuesday, trading near $66,500 after falling to its lowest level since early April. The drop followed sales by a crypto treasury firm, intensifying bearish sentiment among traders.
Traders on Kalshi now estimate an 80% chance bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in 2026, breaching February’s low of $60,062. There is also a 52% probability it dips under $50,000 this year, a level unseen since August 2024. The cryptocurrency has declined over 45% from its October peak above $120,000.
Bearish sentiment has grown, with only a 27% chance bitcoin reaches six figures again in 2026, down from nearly 50% in early May. Polymarket traders see just a 12% likelihood of new all-time highs next year.