FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has finally found some footing after a couple of headlines yesterday pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal.
The initial boost came from Qatari mediators saying that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted
Momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could come as soon as toda y and would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market reaction was pretty straightforward: risk assets surged and oil prices fell on easing inflation concerns and reduced Fed tightening risk. The latter has also supported gold, as real yields and the US dollar declined.
Barring another escalation, the upside should remain supported in the short term. The next test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium.