FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board again today following several positive news on the US-Iran front.
Late yesterday, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and its objectives achieved
That was followed by Trump tonight pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise a deal with Iran. The pause was of course interpreted as another step towards a deal. Lastly, just a few minutes earlier, we got an Axios report saying that US and Iran are getting close to a one-page memo to end the war and that US officials are said to be expecting Iran’s response to several key points in the next 48 hours.
Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing bias amid resilient US data and elevated energy prices. The reopening of the Strait could weigh on the greenback in the short-term as oil prices will likely crater and rate cut bets will increase. After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and the economic data.