QCP said Trump’s pause on “Project Freedom” was seen as a de-escalation signal, pushing oil lower, equities higher and the dollar softer, while BTC reclaimed $80k on improved risk appetite.
However, options markets have not confirmed a full breakout, with 1M ATM IV around 41% and 30D RR still put-rich at about -5.5 vol
QCP noted that yen weakness, rising JGB yields and MoF intervention risk could tighten global liquidity. With OI concentrated around $80k–$85k, a clean break above $82k–$83k remains key; otherwise, rallies may still be faded. — link