Prediction markets adjust odds after reports suggest OpenAI delays its public debut until next year amid caution over retail investor interest.
Traders on prediction platform Kalshi now assign a 59% probability that OpenAI will officially announce its IPO by March 1, 2027. The shift follows a report indicating the AI firm may delay its public market debut until next year, down from earlier expectations of a 2026 listing.
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO on June 8, but advisers have grown cautious after SpaceX’s volatile market reception. Traders estimate only a 33% chance of an announcement before January 1, 2027, though odds rise to 73% by June 2027. Rival Anthropic’s recent confidential filing adds to the competitive landscape.
Kalshi resolves IPO contracts as confirmed upon SEC approval, official pricing, or ticker assignment. The delay reflects broader concerns over retail investor appetite following SpaceX’s post-IPO decline.