Traders on Kalshi assign a 75% chance gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon by November 3, up from 37% before recent Middle East hostilities.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi have raised their expectations for sustained high gas prices as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, disrupting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of gas prices exceeding $3.50 per gallon on November 3 has surged to 75%, up from 37% before the latest hostilities. Odds for prices above $3.75 have also climbed to 39% from 22%.
The national average gas price stood at $3.84 per gallon on Thursday, up 5 cents from the prior day, according to AAA data. U.S. oil prices briefly reached $75 per barrel on Wednesday, rising from $68 earlier in the week, though WTI crude later eased below $72. Before the conflict reignited, the national average was below $3 per gallon.
While traders anticipate prolonged elevated prices, they see limited risk of new highs. The probability of gas prices crossing $4.60 this year remains at 43%, up from roughly one-third before the recent tensions. The 2024 peak was $4.56 per gallon on May 21.