The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast on Wednesday to 102 million barrels per day, a decline of 4.3 mb/d on the year, as the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire reverses a nascent recovery in Gulf output and drives the world deeper into an oil…
rket deficit. The revision marks a significant deterioration from the 3.7 mb/d supply drop the IEA projected in its July report
Gulf production had been climbing through June and into early July, with Middle East loadings touching 20 mb/d at the month’s outset, only to retreat to roughly 12 mb/d as the Hormuz waterway effectively closed again and attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure resumed, the IEA said. The region’s output was still 8.3 mb/d short of where it stood before the war in July, though that gap had narrowed from a peak shortfall of 14 mb/d at the height of the fighting. The IEA now expects the global oil market to show a deficit of 1.8 mb/d in the third quarter of 2026, more than double the roughly 800,000 bpd shortfall it estimated last month.
A draw of 69 million barrels in July brought total observed global oil inventories under 7.9 billion barrels, a level last seen in April 2025. Cumulative stock draws since the start of the war have reached 410 million barrels, the agency said. The supply crunch is also weighing on demand.