The bank lowers its year-end Brent price target citing softer demand and slower-than-expected OECD inventory draws.
JPMorgan reduced its Brent crude price forecast for the second half of 2026, now expecting $86 per barrel in Q3, $80 in Q4, and a year-end exit at $78. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated demand and below-forecast OECD commercial inventory draws, eroding upward price momentum.
Earlier projections had priced in stronger inventory declines and firmer demand growth. The bank noted that private operators’ reluctance to draw commercial stocks masks underlying market softness, which could become evident once government reserve releases slow or reverse.
The outlook for Q4 2026 and H1 2027 points to oversupply, raising questions about OPEC+ production discipline in early 2027. Expanded supply from Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Canada, and the U.S. further weighs on the 2027 price recovery prospects.