Proposed agreement could reduce war risk but add 5-7% fees on Gulf cargo, raising shipping expenses for global oil markets.
A potential Iran-Oman deal granting Tehran control over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes may ease geopolitical tensions but introduce higher costs. Reports suggest Iran could impose fees of 5-7% on cargo values, exceeding Oman’s proposed 3% rate, creating a persistent expense for Gulf oil transit.
Markets have already reacted to halted US strikes, with crude prices falling in recent days. However, unresolved control issues and US opposition to Iranian dominance over the chokepoint could reignite volatility if negotiations stall. The proposal remains contentious, with no immediate US comment on the terms.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil supply, making any shift in control a critical factor for energy markets. Analysts warn that while war risk may decline, long-term shipping costs could rise, offsetting some price relief.