ABN AMRO raises its EUR/PLN forecasts after the zloty weakens 3% against the euro since June due to policy divergence.
The Polish zloty has fallen 3% against the euro since early June, driven by diverging interest rate expectations between the Eurozone and Poland. The National Bank of Poland held rates at 3.75% and remains split on a potential 25 basis point cut post-summer, while the ECB is expected to hike its deposit rate to 2.5% once more.
This policy divergence has prompted analysts to revise their forecasts higher for EUR/PLN. The zloty’s weakness reflects market bets on opposing monetary policy paths, with further downside risk if the NBP adopts a more dovish stance than anticipated.
ABN AMRO upgraded its EUR/PLN projections, citing the shift in rate expectations as the primary catalyst. The pair could test 4.40 if the NBP signals greater easing.