TD Securities highlights RBA’s August minutes flagging early tightening amid strong July CPI and upcoming inflation data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is debating a preemptive rate hike as inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, according to recent communications. August minutes showed a less hawkish tone than June but still emphasized the possibility of early action if inflation pressures escalate.
July’s stronger-than-expected CPI print has intensified speculation, with the September meeting now considered live. Analysts note the RBA may act before Q3 inflation data if risks materialize, though November remains a potential alternative.
Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a hike by year-end, with prior calls for a hold appearing less tenable.