Could the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs Trigger a 40% Stock Market Crash?
Here’s What the Data Says
Talk of a potential 40% market crash is popping up in financial headlines these days, and it has enough surface logic to be taken seriously. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), best known as SpaceX, just completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in U.S. history, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO targeting $30 billion at a valuation of roughly $965 billion.
OpenAI is expected to follow next year. As exciting as all these big-name IPOs might be, they could also trigger a big drawdown, according to financial commentator Mark Hulbert. Hulbert’s analysis draws on academic research by Harvard economist Xavier Gabaix and the University of Chicago’s Ralph Koijen, who found that every dollar withdrawn from U.S. equities causes total market cap to shrink by $5.