TD Securities forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.6% in 2026, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and bond utilization.
China’s July Politburo meeting avoided announcing large-scale stimulus, focusing instead on fiscal execution to support growth. Authorities aim to accelerate spending and bond fund use for infrastructure and social development projects in H2 2026.
The broad budget deficit for 2026 is projected at CNY11.8tn, similar to 2025, with CNY7.2 trillion (5.2% of GDP) earmarked for the second half. This fiscal impulse could lift GDP growth from 4.3% year-over-year in Q2.
Analysts expect full-year GDP growth to reach 4.6% in 2026, aligning with official targets, though off-cycle stimulus remains possible if US-China trade tensions escalate.