Stronger current-account buffers and lighter FX positioning in ASEAN and India mitigate risks from elevated crude prices.
Oil prices near $95 pose a shock for Asian energy importers but are unlikely to trigger a broad balance-of-payments crisis. Analysts cite stronger current-account surpluses in ASEAN and India, alongside prior fiscal consolidation, as key supports for regional currencies.
Recent data show ASEAN and India running their highest current-account surpluses in a decade. Reserve levels have remained manageable despite global liquidity strains, though central bank intervention and reserve trends require monitoring for signs of deterioration.
While Taiwan and South Korea face capital outflows and dollar liquidity constraints, the risk of destabilizing pressure remains limited. High-carry commodity currencies like BRL, ZAR, and CLP are seen as cleaner opportunities amid the oil spike.