OCBC analysts forecast no change to the S$NEER as June’s 1.6% core CPI rebound lacks persistent inflation signals.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to maintain its current Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate policy at Monday’s meeting, despite a slight uptick in core inflation to 1.6% year-on-year in June. Analysts argue the rebound does not indicate a broad or sustained inflation trend warranting immediate tightening.
Core CPI rose modestly from prior months, but the increase remains below levels that would prompt policy shifts. The MAS last adjusted its stance in April, and recent data suggests imported cost pressures and energy pass-through effects are still being assessed.
A balanced hold is expected to limit immediate SGD volatility, though emphasis on imported inflation risks could support a firm S$NEER. The tone of the policy statement will be closely watched for signals on future moves.