Quick Read – Rasgon now projects AMD hitting $20 in earnings by 2028, two years ahead of its 2030 target, on surging server CPU market share. – AMD issued ~10% equity warrants to Meta and OpenAI to land GPU contracts, as NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem still makes AMD’s products less…
mpetitive. – Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon spent years as a skeptic on Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD). On a recent episode of The Real Eisman Playbook, he flipped the script.”I’m looking at 2028 and I’m pretty close to $20 in earnings, which was their 2030 target.” Read that again
The 2030 number, pulled forward two years. Rasgon is not the cheerleader type. So when he upgrades after a run like this and openly admits “better late than never,” it’s worth unpacking what changed in the model and what didn’t.
The CPU Story Is the Real Engine The upgrade hinged on server CPUs. Rasgon said AMD’s server CPU growth needed to be raised from an expected 50% this year to “70%, like maybe more.” AMD has clawed x86 server share from essentially zero to the low-to-mid 40s, with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) sliding to the 60s. That share grab now has a bigger pie to attack: CEO Lisa Su doubled her 2030 total addressable market estimate for server CPUs from $60 billion to $120 billion.