A Goldman Economist Says AI Will Take 15 Years to Show Up in the Economy.
A 63-Year-Old Banking His Nest Egg on the AI Boom Should Listen
Quick Read – A Goldman Sachs economist warns AI productivity gains could take 15 years to register in economic data, making AI-driven retirement math unreliable. – Delaying Social Security from 62 to 70 raises monthly benefits from roughly $1,680 to $2,976, which amounts to a $15,000-per-year gap indexed to inflation for life. – Sequence-of-returns risk permanently shrinks portfolios when retirees withdraw during downturns. Holding one to three years of expenses in cash neutralizes that threat. – Picture a 63-year-old sitting at the kitchen table with his 401(k) statement. He is two years from Medicare, maybe four from claiming Social Security, and his retirement math looks great.
The S&P 500 is up about 20% over the past year and roughly 72% over five years. If that pace continues at even half speed, with AI powering the markets, he retires comfortably. That if is doing a lot of work.