Energy traders expect demand destruction to limit Brent crude to $81-$100 despite Iran war supply disruptions, a Bloomberg Intelligence survey shows.
A survey of 126 energy market participants reveals most expect Brent crude to average $81 to $100 a barrel over the next year. Demand destruction is cited as the primary factor offsetting supply losses from geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate a lasting geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $15 a barrel for years. Supply disruptions of 3 to 7 million barrels a day are expected, with few forecasting outages above 10 million. Hormuz flows are projected to remain at 51 to 75 percent of the normal 20 million barrels daily.
Hedge funds have reduced bullish positions, narrowing call skew for WTI and Brent to its smallest level since the conflict began. Traders increasingly view $100 as a ceiling rather than a floor, treating supply risks as manageable rather than catastrophic.