USD/JPY recovers to pre-Katayama levels
The yen’s sharp initial rally has fully unwound, with USD/JPY moving back above 162. This reversal suggests the initial move was driven by speculative extrapolation rather than confirmed detail.
The GPIF’s basic allocation framework has not changed, with its total portfolio standing at roughly 293.6 trillion yen, or about 1.8 trillion dollars, at the end of fiscal 2025.
The yen’s weakness is also being driven by firmer energy prices and a hawkish dollar backdrop ahead of US inflation data. Even a 1 percentage point shift in the GPIF’s allocation could equate to a meaningful yen flow, making markets sensitive to future signals.