Eli Lilly’s orforglipron pricing and a 15% pharma import cap in U.S. trade deals emerge as key drivers for the $149 healthcare ETF’s 2026 performance.
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) trades at $149, down 3% year-to-date but up 14% over the past year. The fund’s 2026 outlook hinges on two factors: Eli Lilly’s pricing strategy for its experimental obesity drug orforglipron and a 15% cap on pharma imports in U.S. trade agreements.
XLV’s top holdings, led by Lilly’s nearly $1 trillion market cap, dominate the fund’s performance. Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 65% of Q1 revenue, making its August earnings call critical. Meanwhile, Merck and AbbVie face heightened risk if trade policy shifts reverse the current discount.
The ETF’s weighting in the S&P 500 remains under pressure, with broader market gains outpacing healthcare sector growth this year.