US markets head into the new week with inflation data, AI enthusiasm, and a fresh batch of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention after major indexes recently pushed back toward record highs.
The biggest event on the calendar will arrive Tuesday with the April Consumer Price Index report, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve and interest rates heading into the summer
Economists are expecting core inflation to remain relatively steady, though several analysts warn energy prices may complicate the picture. Analysts at UBS expect headline CPI to rise 0.59% in April and core CPI to increase 0.37%, pushing annual rates higher as gasoline, food, and housing-related costs continue to climb. The bank also said April’s data could provide the first “clean” year-over-year inflation comparison since disruptions tied to the 2025 government shutdown.
Retail sales data later in the week will offer another snapshot of the US consumer, with investors looking for signs that spending remains resilient despite persistent inflation pressures. UBS expects control-group retail sales, which feed directly into GDP calculations, to rise 0.4% in April, helped by tax refunds and higher prices at gasoline stations. Markets will also be watching for any signs of stress in household finances as major banks release updates on credit card delinquencies and consumer debt trends.