Watch Out, Rising Capex Could Turn Today’s Cash Cows into Dogs

Quick Read - COWZ has returned 63% over five years, but surging capex in Energy and pharma now threatens to rotate out its current top holdings. - SCHD offers similar quality-value exposure at lower cost for investors who favor dividend durability over COWZ's free-cash-flow...</p

Quick Read – COWZ has returned 63% over five years, but surging capex in Energy and pharma now threatens to rotate out its current top holdings. – SCHD offers similar quality-value exposure at lower cost for investors who favor dividend durability over COWZ’s free-cash-flow…

mentum screen. – ConocoPhillips doubled annual capex to $12 billion between 2021 and 2024, collapsing free cash flow from $18 billion to just $8 billion. – Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (NYSEARCA:COWZ) owns the 100 Russell 1000 names that generate the most free cash flow relative to market value. That pitch has worked

COWZ trades around $64 and is up 17% over the past year. But the engine powering the fund depends on one variable holding up across cyclical sectors, and that variable is starting to wobble. What “dogs” actually means here In stock-picker shorthand, dogs are laggards.

The original Dogs of the Dow strategy bought the ten highest-yielding Dow names every January on the theory that a fat dividend yield signaled a beaten-down price that would mean-revert. COWZ inverts the logic. Instead of hunting cheap yield, it hunts cheap cash generation, screening the Russell 1000 for the highest trailing free-cash-flow yields and capping each name near 2% at quarterly rebalances.

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