Thailand’s June inflation at 2.4% yoy reinforces expectations for the Bank of Thailand to hold rates at 1% through its next meeting.
The Thai baht weakened slightly against the dollar after June inflation data aligned with expectations for steady monetary policy. Headline inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.7% consensus but within the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% target range. Core inflation rose to 1.2%, slightly above forecasts.
Inflation has trended upward since April, following negative readings in 2025-2026. The Ministry of Commerce maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.5-2.5%, citing lower energy prices and stable food supplies as key moderating factors. Non-food inflation slowed to 3.3% from 4% previously.
Markets expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates unchanged at 1% at its next meeting, supported by contained price pressures and a stable inflation outlook.