TD Securities forecasts June retail sales at 0.0% m/m, missing consensus estimates and signaling weaker consumer demand.
US retail sales are expected to remain unchanged in June at 0.0% month-on-month, below the consensus forecast of 0.2%. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker control group, declining gasoline sales due to lower prices, and a drop in food services, though strong auto sales may partly offset the decline.
Analysts had anticipated a modest gain, with prior months showing mixed trends. The projected stagnation follows softer inflation data, including a 0.3% decline in June PPI, driven by falling food and energy prices. Core PCE estimates for June were revised upward to 0.19% from 0.14% after CPI data.
The data reinforces expectations of subdued inflation and may support the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in July.