Commerzbank expects a 250,000-job upward revision to March 2026 payrolls but sees persistent labor market softening.
US nonfarm payrolls grew by just 32,000 jobs per month on average over the past year, signaling a sharp slowdown in employment gains. The deceleration reflects broader labor market softening, though official data may understate actual job creation.
Annual benchmark revisions could add about 250,000 jobs for March 2026, the first upward adjustment in four years. However, this revision is unlikely to reverse the current trend of weakening employment growth, with July’s year-over-year increase at just 0.24%.
Discrepancies between Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data and nonfarm payrolls suggest prior undercounting, with a 230,000-job gap observed in December 2024.