Markets await May retail sales figures, with consensus expecting a 0.5% increase, as focus shifts to Fed policy later today.
US retail sales for May are expected to rise 0.5% month-over-month, matching the ex-autos figure, according to consensus estimates. The control group, excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, is forecast to increase 0.4%, signaling resilient consumer demand despite inflation pressures.
April’s year-over-year sales growth of 4.87% barely outpaced inflation, while gasoline prices—now at $76—could ease spending pressures in June. Bank of America’s card data suggests stronger gains, forecasting 0.8% overall and 0.7% for the control group.
Market reaction may be muted as traders await the 2 pm ET FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s debut press conference. USD/JPY dipped 15 pips to 160.30, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of the Fed event and potential intervention risks.