Prior month 0.1% Leading economic index -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board said: “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May…
d April. While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories
Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y GDP growth for 2026.” Looking at the coincident and lagging indicators from the conference Board: The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% in June to 114.6, matching the 0.2% increase recorded in May.
The CEI increased 0.4% during the first half of 2026, slightly stronger than the 0.3% gain in the previous six months. All four components of the CEI—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—contributed positively in June. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged at 120.5 in June after slipping 0.1% in May.