TD Securities forecasts May payrolls at 60k, unemployment rising to 4.4%, with a dovish market reaction likely but tempered by inflation concerns.
May Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by just 60k, a sharp slowdown from prior prints, as private-sector hiring cools and government jobs stagnate. The forecast points to a moderation in trade, transportation, and utilities, while healthcare remains a bright spot.
Consensus estimates had called for 85k new jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations, but the year-over-year rate may edge up to 3.5%.
Analysts anticipate a dovish market reaction, though persistent inflation focus could limit the dollar’s downside.