Danske Bank projects July nonfarm payrolls at 70k, with unemployment unchanged and wage growth moderating amid solid labor conditions.
US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 70k in July, while the unemployment rate holds at 4.2% and average hourly earnings increase 0.3% month-over-month. The forecast reflects persistent labor market strength despite slower employment growth.
Leading indicators, including low jobless claims and a decline in announced layoffs to 33,429 in July, support the outlook. Productivity gains in Q2, rising 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, have curbed unit labor costs, easing inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve.
Initial and continuing jobless claims remained stable, with the latter at 1.801 million for the week ending July 25. AI-linked layoffs now account for 33% of total announced cuts, though overall labor market resilience continues to limit Fed concerns.