June non-farm payrolls expected at 110K, down from 172K in May, as traders eye September rate hike odds near 66%.
The June US non-farm payrolls report is set to dominate markets, with economists forecasting a rise of 110K jobs, slowing from 172K in May. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.
Recent Fed policy expectations have shifted, with traders pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 bps rate hike in September. A full 25 bps increase is now fully priced for October, with 36 bps of hikes expected by year-end.
Market reaction will hinge on whether the data reinforces or weakens the case for tighter policy, with limited economic releases following the jobs report to close the holiday-shortened week.