A 60-day oil sales waiver and phased mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz may ease supply constraints but carry execution risks.
The U.S.-Iran agreement includes a 60-day oil sales waiver, directly increasing near-term crude supply. Markets had priced in a clean supply catalyst, but execution risks remain due to unverified mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz over 30 days.
Iran holds over 9,000kg of enriched uranium, including 440kg near weapons-grade, with dilution under IAEA supervision as the minimum commitment. Phased sanctions relief tied to nuclear progress delays full supply unlock, keeping longer-term uncertainty intact.
The deal’s gradual implementation and lack of independent verification may limit immediate upside for oil markets despite the short-term waiver.