Key economic reports including PCE and jobless claims may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing in June.
Markets brace for a slew of U.S. economic data this week, including personal consumption expenditures, jobless claims, and housing figures, which could shape Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be closely watched for signs of persistent price pressures amid elevated oil costs tied to Middle East tensions.
Prediction markets and the CME FedWatch tool currently show a near-zero probability of a June rate cut, with investors pricing in steady rates. Prior prints for PCE inflation and jobless claims came in at 0.67M and 212K, respectively, while consensus estimates for upcoming data remain mixed.
Any upside surprise in inflation or labor market strength could further delay Fed easing, weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, softer data may revive hopes for a September cut, supporting market sentiment.