Key Takeaways from the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) – May 2026 Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, signaling some moderation in the labor market outlook.
The ETI is a leading indicator for payroll employment, meaning it is designed to provide clues about future hiring trends rather than current employment conditions
Despite the monthly decline, the ETI remains 2.1 points higher than six months ago, suggesting the labor market continues to show overall resilience. May payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs, indicating current labor market conditions remain solid even as forward-looking indicators soften. Five of the eight ETI components contributed negatively in May, highlighting potential downside risks for employment growth in coming months.
Major Negative Factors The largest drag came from the share of small businesses reporting positions that are “not able to be filled right now.” Fell to 29% from 34% in April. Lowest level since May 2020. Suggests labor shortages are easing and hiring demand may be cooling.