Wall Street expects May inflation at 4.2% annually, driven by energy costs and broadening price pressures beyond oil.
US consumer prices are projected to rise 4.2% year-over-year in May, the highest since April 2023, according to consensus estimates. The monthly gain is expected at 0.5%, pushing the annual rate above 4% for the first time since May 2023.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is forecast to climb 2.9% annually after a 0.3% monthly increase. Headline inflation stood at 2.4% a year ago, with the recent surge tied to energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions.
Analysts warn inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy, citing money supply and AI-driven demand as contributing factors. Markets may react negatively to a higher-than-expected print, given concerns over persistent inflation.