Investors await June US inflation figures, with geopolitical tensions and crowded trades adding to market caution.
Markets remained rangebound as traders awaited the US Consumer Price Index report, a key indicator for Federal Reserve policy. The NFIB small business optimism index rose to 97.4 in June, exceeding the 95.7 forecast, signaling modest economic resilience.
Oil prices extended gains, with WTI surpassing $80 amid escalating US-Iran tensions and supply disruption fears. Bank of America’s July Fund Manager Survey highlighted extreme positioning, with 54% expecting ‘no landing’ and long semiconductors the most crowded trade on record.
Gold and bond markets showed caution ahead of the CPI release, while 83% of investors surveyed do not expect a Fed rate hike before November.