US April Non-farm Payrolls +115K vs +62K Expected

Prior was +178K Two-month net revision ___ February was -92K (revised to -133K). January was +126K (revised to +160K) Unemployment rate ___% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment ___% vs 4.256% prior Participation rate ___% vs 61.9% prior U6

Prior was +178K Two-month net revision ___ February was -92K (revised to -133K).

January was +126K (revised to +160K) Unemployment rate ___% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment ___% vs 4.256% prior Participation rate ___% vs 61.9% prior U6 underemployment rate ___% vs 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings +% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +% y/y vs +3.8% expected Average weekly hours ___ vs 34.2 expected Change in private payrolls +___K vs +75expected Change in manufacturing payrolls +___K vs +5K expected Government payrolls ___K vs -8K in March The US labor market enters April having staged a sharp but flattering rebound

March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178K, while January was revised up by 34K to +160K and February was revised down by 41K to -133K, leaving the two prior months a combined 7K lower than previously reported. Smoothing the volatility, payrolls have averaged just 68K per month over the last three months — only modestly above the breakeven pace the labor market now requires. The composition is doing a lot of the work.

Healthcare alone accounted for 76K of March’s gain, much of it strike-affected workers returning to payrolls, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% partly because the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.9% from 62.0%, meaning some of the improvement reflects people exiting the labor force rather than finding work. Wages cooled meaningfully. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago — the slowest annual pace since May 2021.

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