Thailand’s 2026 inflation outlook hinges on USD/THB, oil prices, and El Niño risks, per UOB’s analysis of Ministry of Commerce projections.
Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce maintained its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5%–2.5%, with a 2.0% midpoint, citing stable assumptions for Dubai crude at USD80–90 and USD/THB at 32.0–33.0. The projection includes quarterly inflation swings, from -0.54% in 1Q26 to +2.70% in 2Q26, before stabilizing near 2.0% in the second half.
UOB economists highlight near-term upside risks, including elevated retail fuel prices, food costs, and potential El Niño impacts. The forecast also assumes GDP growth of 1.5%–2.5%, diesel at THB35–40/liter, and an electricity tariff of THB3.93/unit. Offsetting factors include lower electricity tariffs and abundant fresh-fruit supply.
Key sensitivities include a possible 3%–5% rise in meal prices and broader prepared-food adjustments, while second-round inflation effects remain limited, aligning with the Bank of Thailand’s assessment.