Preliminary UK GDP data for Q1 is expected to show a rebound, though March figures could reveal contraction amid Iran war fallout.
The UK’s preliminary Q1 GDP report, due Thursday, is forecast to show a 0.6% expansion, rebounding from a weak 0.1% gain in Q4 2025. The improvement follows a sluggish end to last year but may mask underlying weakness.
March data, released alongside the quarterly figures, is expected to show a 0.2% monthly GDP contraction, the worst in nearly a year. Manufacturing and industrial production are also projected to decline, reflecting disruptions tied to the Iran conflict.
If confirmed, the mixed signals could pressure the Bank of England, as slowing growth collides with persistent inflationary risks. Political uncertainty may further weigh on the British Pound.