Standard Chartered lifts 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3% after stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion despite government spending drag.
The UK economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, matching consensus but exceeding Standard Chartered’s 0.2% estimate. Private consumption rose 0.3% and business investment jumped 1.7%, offsetting a 0.3% decline in government spending.
Growth slowed from Q1’s 0.6% print but remained resilient amid higher energy prices and Middle East uncertainty. June’s monthly GDP grew 0.3%, defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction, led by services activity.
Standard Chartered now expects 0.2-0.3% quarterly growth in H2 and raised its 2026 forecast to 1.3%. The Bank of England is still seen holding rates steady this year.