Markets expect UK inflation to cool to 3% YoY in April, potentially easing pressure on the Bank of England to maintain tight policy.
UK inflation is forecast to slow to 3% year-over-year in April, down from 3.3% in March, according to consensus estimates. The decline reflects lower energy costs after the Ofgem price cap adjustment and fading Easter-related price pressures, though monthly CPI is expected to rise 0.9% from 0.7% in March.
Core CPI, excluding volatile items, is projected to ease to 2.6% YoY, the lowest since July 2021. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will also be released, with input prices expected to slow sharply to 1% from 4.4% in March, signaling further disinflationary trends.
The data arrives as investors assess the Bank of England’s next moves, with any deviation from forecasts likely to drive volatility in GBP markets.