Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave.
Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to stabilise oil prices long term.
Summary: The UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, citing longstanding frustration with production quotas that kept it well below its capacity of up to 4.8 million barrels a day Kazakhstan is identified as the next most likely candidate to leave, having repeatedly chafed under its quota of 1.6 million barrels a day, though its excess capacity is far smaller than the UAE’s Iraq is flagged as another potential departure risk, though Iraqi officials told Reuters on Tuesday the country has no plans to leave Columbia University’s Antoine Halff described the UAE as the most likely candidate to exit for quite some time, and noted Kazakhstan might actually gain influence within OPEC now that the UAE has gone CIBC’s Rebecca Babin compared OPEC to the Federal Reserve of the oil market, arguing that smaller producers benefit from the price stability the cartel provides Rystad Energy warned that near-term price effects of the UAE’s departure may be muted given Hormuz disruption, but that a structurally weaker OPEC will struggle to calibrate supply and stabilise prices over time Iran’s attacks on fellow members’ energy infrastructure were described as an unprecedented challenge for the organisation, which has survived wars between members before The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has shaken the oil cartel, but energy experts say the more important question now is who might follow. While an imminent collapse of the organisation is not widely expected, Kazakhstan and potentially Iraq are being watched as the two members with the clearest reasons to walk away. Of the two, Kazakhstan is considered the more credible near-term risk.
The central Asian producer has long resisted its OPEC quota, repeatedly pushing production beyond agreed…