U.S. hiring slowdown could be great for bitcoin — unless wages spoil the party Your day-ahead look for May 8, 2026 What to know: Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could inject volatility into the crypto market.
Economists expect April job growth to slow sharply, with payrolls forecast to rise by just 62,000 compared with March’s 172,000, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady around 4.3%, according to Reuters
At first glance, weaker hiring data appears supportive for bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer labor market could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady this year and potentially delay any tightening cycle beyond that. As of now, markets are pricing in steady rates through this year, followed by a hike next year.
But the picture is more complicated. Alongside the payrolls release, markets will also be watching wage growth closely. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously.