Commerzbank projects USD/TRY to rise to 57.00 by December 2027 due to inflation and current account pressures.
The Turkish Lira is expected to weaken further against the US Dollar, driven by persistent inflation and a deteriorating current account balance. Commerzbank forecasts USD/TRY to climb from 48.00 in September 2026 to 57.00 by December 2027, despite tight monetary policy and FX interventions.
Turkey’s reliance on energy imports and financial ties to the Middle East exacerbate balance of payments vulnerabilities. While the central bank maintains a 37.0% policy rate, inflation remains stubborn, with year-end 2026 forecasts revised upward to 28% from an earlier 24% target.
The bank’s analysis highlights ongoing challenges, including a closed weekly repo window and funding pressures at a 40.0% overnight rate. Inflation trends remain discouraging, complicating efforts to stabilize the currency.