Rabobank raises TTF and JKM gas price forecasts due to Strait of Hormuz risks and QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure.
European TTF natural gas prices are expected to remain elevated at €51-52 per megawatt-hour through Q4 2026, driven by persistent supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, with any disruption threatening global LNG trade and tightening gas balances in Europe and Asia.
QatarEnergy’s force majeure extension through mid-October has further constrained LNG availability, prompting upward revisions to price forecasts. While Qatari supply may recover by September or October, it will likely be insufficient to ease market tightness before winter. Consensus had previously anticipated a gradual easing as global LNG supply increased.
Price risks remain skewed to the upside even if geopolitical tensions ease, with limited short-term alternatives for LNG. Winter scenarios range from normalization to escalation, depending on shipping disruptions or further supply constraints.