Gulf states increasingly distance from Israel and U.S. security alliances, complicating Trump’s leverage in Iran negotiations.
President Trump is reviving the 2020 Abraham Accords as leverage in Iran negotiations, aiming to secure a ceasefire through normalization with Israel. The strategy faces resistance as regional dynamics have shifted significantly since the accords were signed six years ago.
Gulf leaders no longer view Washington or Israel as reliable partners. The UAE has expanded defense coordination with Israel, including joint operations during the current conflict, while Saudi Arabia has pivoted toward deeper security ties with Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. This divergence undermines the U.S. effort to unify regional allies against Iran.
Market implications hinge on whether the ceasefire plan gains traction, as instability in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies and global trade routes. Analysts warn that fragmented alliances may prolong tensions rather than ease them.