The main reason to expect a wrap-up to the Iran war is this chart: That’s an ugly look for the party that prides itself on focusing on the economy and a President that campaigned on bringing down inflation.
The combination of tariffs and the Iran war have tanked his credibility and now have Republicans talking about a new package of economic measures
That’s going to be a very tall order given that the party has divided itself with Trump and his allies defeating some long-time Republicans in Primaries, essentially leaving them as lame duck opponents while remaining in the party with razor-thin majorities. No doubt charts like this are fuel for vulnerable Republicans who want Trump out of Iran ASAP. I think the administration has done everything it can (with some great success) to keep oil prices capped during this war but there’s a limit and we’re rapidly approaching it.
Even if it ends now, I think oil will struggle to stay below $80 for the remainder of the year as inventories are rebuilt. Bloomberg writes about the falling approval ratings today and the flailing messaging. Trump said early on the war would be over in 4-6 weeks and prices would plunge but that credibility has obviously shredded.